Three reasons why FSU football can defeat Georgia Bulldogs in the Orange Bowl
The points total has only decreased by one point, but the points spread has increased by almost a touchdown. Tate Rodemaker, FSU’s backup quarterback, signed on to the transfer portal, and the school’s top three receiving options declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, which is probably why. Trey Benson, the best running back at FSU, also submitted an NFL Draft declaration for 2024.
A large portion of FSU’s 2023 defense, which was among the best in NCAA football, will remain in place. Fabien Lovett, Jarrian Jones, Renardo Green, Akeem Dent, and Jared Verse have all declared for the 2024 NFL Draft. Many people have criticized these men for sitting out the game, but I don’t see why they should when the College Football Playoff Committee said that their efforts in the previous 13 games were meaningless.
This game would have probably had a betting line around +7.5 or +8 if both sides were playing at full health because, as you can see, that’s a lot of firepower. Can FSU win the match? Though it’s not a given, I don’t think they will. These are three reasons why they could succeed.
This year has had lulls in Georgia
Due to the numerous complexities involved, bowl games can be strange. Guys are seated (Georgia will have guys seated as well). It’s a neutral site game, and the two teams haven’t faced off in a few weeks.
There is a -20 point betting spread. Not one of the biggest upsets in recent memory would occur if FSU defeated Georgia. Though they are a great team, this Georgia squad is not the same one that has won consecutive national titles.
There are reasons why people tend to overlook SEC teams. But then, Georgia didn’t exactly annihilate every team they faced. Georgia, a +26.5 betting underdog, was hung with by a team that didn’t make it to a bowl game, like South Carolina. At halftime, Georgia Tech was only trailing the Bulldogs 21–13, and they were +24.5 favorites in the betting.
A freshman quarterback who has only made one start is a difficult ask for FSU, which will play a lot of young players. But FSU has some talented players. Not to add that recent years have witnessed some huge upsets in college football. Texas A&M was upset by Appalachian State, who were favored by +17.5 on the road. North Carolina lost against Virginia at +23.5 when betting underdogs.
Game-planning/scheming is Mike Norvell’s forte.
Mike Norvell, the offensive coordinator for FSU, is among the greatest in the business, but if his team hopes to pull off the upset, he will have to play everything on the line. Georgia’s defense is really good, but in 13 games, they have only had 15 fewer tackles for loss than Louisville.
I bring up Louisville because it was the team that Brock Glenn, a freshman at FSU, faced in his lone start this season. Additionally, they had 34 sacks as opposed to Georgia’s 29. Is FSU able to move the ball offensively? is the main question going into this game.
Brock Glenn’s ability to throw in time when they choose to go for a throw will be crucial in achieving that. Finding strategies to gain yards on the ground is one of Mike Norvell’s skills. Using direct snaps to running backs among other things, he accomplished it against an aggressive Louisville defense.
Wide receivers for FSU are talented, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a few big plays. In the Louisville game, several big plays were lost because the receivers failed to catch the pass. Unless Mike Norvell is happy to run the it until it is dead to cut the game short, I don’t think FSU will move the ball regularly. Instead, they’ll have to live and die by the explosive play.
FSU’s defense is still strong.
Towards the close of the regular season, FSU’s defense was performing at an extremely high level; it’s unfortunate that they were unable to carry that performance into the College Football Playoffs. I think that’s part of the reason the committee passed over FSU, to be honest.
I think they were worried that they might win a game, maybe 17–13. Including stopping LSU, the top-ranked college football offense, FSU hasn’t let up more than 24 points in any game this year. They have a lot of output available even though they will be without a few key defensive players, as I previously said.
With Darrell Jackson available following the regular season, FSU should maintain its strong run defense. Georgia, though, should look to run where Jared Verse would have been.
Some young people at FSU’s secondary school are there and could be taken advantage of. Georgia’s ability to march up and down the field will be limited if FSU can halt the run. Except for a few runs here and there, they have played effectively when facing attacks without outstanding dual-threat quarterbacks.
Final Words
Hear me out: it’s a big request, but it’s doable. The fact that the betting line is up to +20 and that Georgia is the favorite by 85% is telling. That normally means that FSU has a good chance of covering the spread, which is a wonderful way to devastate casual bettors. Though I wouldn’t be astonished if FSU covered the spread, I’m not betting on them to win. Georgia’s motivation to participate in this game is high. In this game, a few of their starters will not be participating.
This year, Georgia has committed a fair number of turnovers—almost one per game on average. Alex Mastramanno is a superb punter for FSU, and the team plays strong defense.
IF FSU is able to produce some high-octane offensive plays, halt the opposition’s momentum, and occasionally force a turnover or big play on special teams? Crazy things have happened before, and we haven’t witnessed an FSU squad not play with intensity for a very long time. In less than a day, I suppose we’ll find out.