The reasons why Michigan State might be ready for a February surprise
With an 18-point victory over Michigan at home, Michigan State wrapped up its January schedule in grand fashion on Tuesday night, coinciding with the 700th career victory of its head coach.
It might be in a good position to maintain that momentum through February and begin to resemble the squad that was among the top five in the nation heading into the preseason. The Spartans are well-positioned to have a successful February, secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and enter March with some momentum, both in terms of their schedule and analytics.
Here’s a closer look at Michigan State’s situation leading up to its home game against Maryland on Saturday:
The timetable
Michigan State’s schedule is the second easiest in the Big Ten, with Ohio State’s being the easiest, according to Barttorvik.com. Part of that is playing Purdue just once, but there’s also what Michigan State has coming up in the next month.
The Spartans’ schedule has always seemed to be most doable in February. Its three road games this month are against Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State—all of whom Michigan State has defeated by double digits at the Breslin Center and who are all below.500 in Big Ten play.
Three of its four home games are against teams, though.500 or lower. Iowa has dropped its last three games and is 4-6 in Big Ten play. After seven games, Ohio State has suffered six losses. Michigan State has already defeated Maryland, which is 5-5, at College Park.
The hardest game of the seven was undoubtedly Illinois, but Michigan State came within three points of defeating the Illini in Champaign. Although a strong performance in the past doesn’t guarantee one in the rematch, Michigan State can enter many of its games in the upcoming month with assurance thanks to its track record.
The figures
Predictive analytics has rated Michigan State as a team that is superior to its win-loss record for the majority of this season. Teams frequently veer toward the direction indicated by such stats as the season progresses.
The Spartans are ranked No. 17 at Kenpom.com and No. 15 at Barttorvik.com following their victory over Michigan; these rankings are significantly higher than their positions in any human polls or resume-based criteria. Additionally, they rank No. 24 in the NCAA’s NET system. This is mostly due to the fact that it has frequently won by wide margins and lost by close margins, away from home, and against elite teams.
Only 11 teams in the nation can say that their offense and defense are both among the top 30 in Kenpom, demonstrating the Spartans’ excellent balance.
Analytics favor Michigan State in all seven of its games in February and frequently does so by a wide margin; the Spartans may be favored by eight or more in their games against Iowa, Maryland, and Ohio State. Even if the expected game between Illinois and the Spartans is the closest, the home team is still the favorites. While Michigan State still needs to show up and win those games, the statistics indicate that they have a strong chance of doing so on most nights.
The ceiling
It’s unlikely that Michigan State coaches and players will argue that one scheduling stretch is better for them than another. They are aware, however, that many games will go their way if they can continue to play as well as they did on Tuesday, outscoring Michigan by 21 points in the second half while shooting 60 percent.
Spartans point guard A.J. Hoggard stated, “We’re definitely hard to beat when we’re all cooking at the same time.” “We just need to figure out how to bring it every night and be consistent in that.”
For the Spartans, March will probably be more difficult than February. They travel to Purdue, home of one of the top teams in the league, to play at a stadium where they haven’t prevailed in ten years, to begin the month. Next up for Michigan State is Northwestern, a team that has shown to be a constant threat. The season finale will take the Spartans to Indiana, home of three of their previous four defeats.
But if the Spartans can continue to play as they did at the end of January, they may be in excellent spirits going into the most significant month in college basketball.
Tom Izzo, the coach of the Spartans, stated, “I think the secret to successful programs is consistency.” “We’ve exhibited constant inconsistency. Hopefully, some of these will teach us anything.