Raptors’ Play-In Dreams Are Suddenly Not So Imaginary
Around this time three years ago, the Toronto Raptors ended Kyle Lowry’s career and focused on selecting the best player from what was thought to be an outstanding class in the 2021 NBA Draft. Following a play-in place and an implausible playoff run wasn’t worth it, as Raptors president Masai Ujiri subsequently said, when a lottery pick could alter the team’s destiny.
Regardless of your opinion regarding the benefits of tanking, the outcomes of the ‘Tampa Tank’ are evident. Toronto secured Scottie Barnes by moving up into the top four of the lottery. The Raptors are currently facing a predicament that is fairly comparable, despite having to deal with a challenging issue with a first-round choice.
Toronto isn’t fooling anyone with its 21-36 record to suggest that it is a legitimate post-season contender. The Raptors have the seventh-worst record in the NBA and would have a 32% probability of landing in the top four if the season ended tonight. Because the San Antonio Spurs own a top-six protected pick from the organization this year, moving up or down the rankings significantly alters the organization’s chances of maintaining or transferring that pick.
For instance, the Raptors would have the sixth-worst record and a 45.8% chance of keeping their choice if they were to surpass the Memphis Grizzlies in the reverse standings. However, the team has abruptly returned to the fringes of the play-in conversation with victories over the Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks following the All-Star break.
In the conference, Toronto is only one game behind the Nets for the 11th slot, and three games behind the Hawks for the 10th seed and a trip to the play-in round. With just 25 games left, that’s a big deficit to overcome, but it is not insurmountable. For instance, Basketball-Reference projects that the Raptors have an 11% chance of making it into the play-in round.
Coach Darko Rajaković of the Raptors stated that securing a play-in berth is crucial. “We want to compete in every game, look for a play-in opportunity, try to make the playoffs, and grow as a team at the same time.”
The Raptors aren’t taking it down just yet. Yes, they will not put short-term objectives ahead of long-term growth, but the team’s plan must be finished. Although they are aware that it will be a difficult journey to get a play-in position, the pursuit itself serves as a valuable educational opportunity for Toronto’s youthful core.
And so be it if doing so means giving the Spurs this year’s eighth or ninth choice. Toronto is ready to hand the lotto night up to destiny.