5 questions that will define the Diamondbacks’ offseason
As the offseason gets under way, Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen would be the first to tell you that he feels behind. He did not have preliminary trade discussions in October as he usually would. He has not yet started interviewing candidates to replace Josh Barfield, who left his job as Diamondbacks farm director for an assistant GM role with the Chicago White Sox. Hazen and his staff have worked late nights and early mornings to catch up.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, will enter next season as the reigning National League champions. There is no doubt that their 84 regular-season wins in 2023 did not reflect their genuine talent at the end of the season. Hazen agrees in part with that sentiment. He claimed that the bullpen was much better at the end of the season than it was at the start. In Paul Sewald, they finally have a true closer. They would have won more than 84 games if Sewald had been on the team from the start.
Hazen, on the other hand, finds no reason to believe the Diamondbacks are anything other than what they were during the regular season: an 84-win team. “Everyone goes back to what [former NFL Coach] Bill Parcels says,” he remarked last week during his farewell interview. “You are what your record says you are, and that’s who we were. “That is not meant to be a derogatory statement. I’m proud that we made it to the playoffs. That is not an easy thing to do, and many teams failed to do so. But when I think about that 84-win total, I think there’s a lot of space for improvement.”
Historically, the Diamondbacks have struggled to make the postseason in consecutive years. That achievement has only occurred once before, in 2001-02. No two straight postseason visits have been closer than four years apart since then.Following Arizona’s World Series victory this year, optimism has hit a 20-year high. However, this does not appear to be the type of team that can run it again and expect comparable results.
As this pivotal offseason unfolds, here are five questions that will go a long way in deciding how successful it ultimately is.
1. How much will the Diamondbacks spend?
The Diamondbacks began the 2023 season with a $116.2 million payroll, and they now have $82.6 million on the books for 2024, according to Cot’s Contracts. (Remember that the latter figure does not include the $14 million payable to Madison Bumgarner in 2024, despite his departure in April of this year.)
Two opposing but not necessarily equal forces are expected to have an impact on the Diamondbacks’ salary in 2024.The positive force emanates from the Diamondbacks’ recent postseason run to the World Series. All 12 postseason teams share revenue, with the clubs that reach the furthest receiving the most.
The actual amount of revenue collected by the Diamondbacks this playoffs is unknown, but it is significant. According to a Fangraphs analysis of the 2012 postseason, the San Francisco Giants received $20.5 million.Of course, the Diamondbacks were runner-ups rather than champions this year, but inflation, combined with the benefits of a larger postseason field, could make up the difference.
“The opportunity that playing all of these games creates is an economic windfall that was not planned,” Diamondbacks managing general partner Ken Kendrick said last week to Burns & Gambo. “It has always been our approach to this ballclub over the years that we reinvest the dollars that we have back into the payroll of our team.”
According to that statement, the Diamondbacks’ salary will be increased in 2024, though Kendrick did not provide precise figures. Whatever the extent of increase, the Diamondbacks’ TV situation appears to be a negative force working against them.
Diamond Sports Group, the parent company of former Diamondbacks broadcast partner Bally Sports Arizona, declared bankruptcy in March 2023. Major League Baseball stepped in four months later to broadcast Diamondbacks games instead.
The transition may have appeared seamless to the viewer. However, the Diamondbacks were certain to lose money once their TV rights contract with Diamond was terminated. It is unclear how much television revenue they lost, but MLB commissioner Rob Manfred agreed to backstop 80 percent of what teams were owed under previous contracts.
However, according to Alden Gonzalez of ESPN, that 80 percent guarantee only applied to the 2023 season. Should the Diamondbacks choose MLB as their broadcast partner in 2024, or if they sign a deal elsewhere, they appear to be facing a big loss in TV revenue compared to previous seasons. According to an Arizona Republic story, their prior contract with Diamond had an average annual value of roughly $75 million.
During the GM meetings on Wednesday, Hazen declined to comment on the topic, other than to remark that decreased TV revenue “has not been a major factor” in his payroll discussions with Diamondbacks majority owner Ken Kendrick and President Derrick Hall.
2. will the Diamondbacks solve their third base problem?
Diamondbacks third basemen slashed a mediocre in 2023.234/.303/.340. Their 75 wRC+ (league average is 100) ranks them 27th in baseball, trailing only the Detroit Tigers, Oakland A’s, and New York Mets. The Diamondbacks are unconcerned about third base. They have lacked a consistent everyday option since dealing Eduardo Escobar at the trade deadline in 2021.
Josh Rojas was adequate in the job in 2022, but he struggled in the first half of the 2023 season before being moved to the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline. With veteran Evan Longoria now a free agent, Emmanuel Rivera is the team’s only genuine third baseman. In 283 plate appearances in 2023, he hit.261/.314/.358.
Jace Peterson, a utility player acquired at the trade deadline, is also on the Diamondbacks’ roster. Peterson, on the other hand, hit just.183/.276/.258 after joining the team.
In addition to Rivera and Peterson, the Diamondbacks might move one of their talented young shortstops to third base. Geraldo Perdomo played third base in 16 games this season, but he lacks the power that the position demands. The franchise has expressed some willingness to put top shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar at third base, but Hazen has stated that he will be aggressive in seeking a solution outside of the organization.
“We’re in the period now where there’s a lot of ability to acquire external players,” Hazen told reporters. “You kind of focus on that first, and then we’ll see where that all comes together after.”You never want to pass up an opportunity to bring more good players to your club.”It’s difficult to predict what the Diamondbacks’ third-base solution would look like. They may look for a stopgap solution through trade, or they could turn to a small pool of free agents.
Matt Chapman, 30, is widely regarded as the top free agent third baseman on the market this winter. He is one of the best defenders in the game at the hot corner and is projected to command well over $100 million this winter.Aside from Chapman, the only other free-agent third baseman who would be an obvious upgrade over what the Diamondbacks already have is 29-year-old switch-hitter Jeimer Candelario.
With the Detroit Tigers and Chicago Cubs in 2023, he hit.251/.336/.471 with 22 home runs and 70 RBI. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Diamondbacks are among the teams who have indicated interest.
3. What caliber of starting pitcher(s) will the Diamondbacks acquire?
The Diamondbacks will be aggressive in the trade and free agent markets for starting pitching, according to Hazen, although it is unclear what caliber starter they are looking for.”We have two top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers and we think Brandon Pfaadt has the ability to get into that mode,” Hazen said in a statement. “I believe we’re off to a good start.”
“Who the number one, two, or three are — I don’t get too hung up on where they fit in. We need to work on our rotation.”
While the general free-agent market is viewed as weak, there are a plethora of frontline choices, including NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, right-handed iron man Aaron Nola, the older but still outstanding Sonny Gray, and 25-year-old Japanese wonder Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Jordan Montgomery, who the Diamondbacks recently faced in the World Series, will also be in great demand.
With the probable exception of Gray, all of those pitchers appear to be on track to earn more than $100 million with their new organizations. The Diamondbacks’ ability to spend at that level is related to the preceding conversation about World Series and TV money — and how much they feel the need to spread around the resources they do have.
Aside from the top tier, there are other mid-tier free-agent starters, like as 30-year-old lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s 3.30 ERA was slightly higher than his peripherals in 2023, but he has established himself as a consistent mid-rotation starter in recent years. Lucas Giolito, a former White Sox pitcher, is also available. He’s a proven innings eater at 29, but his homer proclivity has resulted in back-to-back seasons with high-four ERAs.
There are a few intriguing comeback contenders, including two-time All-Star Luis Severino. He is still young, only 29 years old. When asked if acquiring a pitcher who is more of a bounce back candidate than a well-established starter was a possibility, Hazen would not rule it out.
Of course, the trade market could be an option in the D-backs’ search for a starting pitcher. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Milwaukee Brewers are open to offers for practically any player on their roster, including and possibly especially right-handed starter Corbin Burnes. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the White Sox’ Dylan Cease might also be available in the right deal.
Acquiring Burnes or Cease would be significantly less expensive financially than signing them as free agents, but both would be quite expensive in terms of potential capital. With Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and the young Pfaadt already in place, the Diamondbacks could potentially open the season with one of the greatest rotations in baseball.
4. How much right-handed thump will the Diamondbacks add?
Even if the Diamondbacks sign a proven right-handed hitter, they could benefit from another right-handed bat or two. Much of this is due to the fact that both Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham are now free agents. They were both middle-of-the-order hitters. The free-agent market for impactful right-handed bats is limited, but there are a few intriguing choices, including 31-year-old Jorge Soler, 36-year-old J.D. Martinez, and 38-year-old Justin Turner. In 2023, Soler slashed.250/.341/.512. Martinez had a.271/.321/.572 batting line. Turner concluded the season with a.276/.345/.455 line.
All three appear to be significant offensive upgrades, but they all have defensive limitations. Martinez was only employed as a DH in 2023. Soler played some right field, but his range was lacking. Turner appears to be over his prime as an above-average third baseman. At this moment, he is a capable first baseman, a position that the Diamondbacks have already filled with Christian Walker. He is best used as a DH solely outside of that.
If the Diamondbacks want to add a dependable right-handed hitter who can also play outfield, which is a plausible proposal given that all of their other outfielders near the top of the depth chart bat left-handed, they will have to do so through trade. On that front, it appears like there may be some possibilities. Among others who come to mind are Lane Thomas of the Washington Nationals and Anthony Santander of the Baltimore Orioles.
How the Diamondbacks replace Gurriel and Pham which may mean bringing back one or both of them will determine how much better (or worse) their lineup appears in 2024.
5. Will the Diamondbacks extend Gabriel Moreno?
Early-career contract extensions are uncommon and necessitate tremendous commitment from both the athlete and the team. As a result, it would be unfair to declare this summer a failure if the Diamondbacks do not extend catcher Gabriel Moreno, who is 23 years old.If they do extend Moreno, it could be the most important move they make all season.
Hazen declined to comment on the prospect of extending Moreno during the GM meetings, but he appears to be thinking along those lines.
“We see the value in the fans being able to associate the Diamondbacks with specific players,” he went on to say. “People seem to get really excited about Corbin Carroll, and having Corbin Carroll here for a long time is an important piece for us to build around moving forward.” We have additional younger players we’d want to bring on board to help shape the team’s identity.”
Moreno looked more and more like a star as the season continued after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in one of the greatest moves in baseball last offseason. He won the National League Gold Glove Award earlier this week. It could be just the beginning.Moreno concluded the regular season with a slash line of.284/.339/.408, including a.311/.382/.496 line after returning from a shoulder injury on Aug. 11.
Moreno equaled Adley Rutschman of the Baltimore Orioles for the most valuable catcher in baseball with 4.3 bWAR, despite playing 43 more games.Manager Torey Lovullo chose Moreno as his No. 5 hitter against right-handed starting pitchers at the start of the Diamondbacks’ postseason run.
Moreno was 3-for-20 in the World Series. Prior to it, however, he hit.279/.340/.512 in 12 postseason games.Moreno is on course to become a free agent after the 2028 season, when he will be 28 years old. Carroll, too, would have been eligible for free agency after the 2028 season if the Diamondbacks had not extended him.
Carroll is presently under contract until 2030, with a club option for 2031. Perhaps the Diamondbacks can reach a similar agreement with Moreno.