Examining the Vancouver Canucks’ potential for Nikita Zadorov as a top-four defender.
It’s obvious that Zadorov contributed to Saturday’s triumph. Was it a top-four role, though? That is not simple.With 17:35 of ice time, Zadorov was fifth among defenders and eighth among Canucks skaters, trailing only Ian Cole (17:43), Quinn Hughes (22:40), Tyler Myers (22:01), and Filip Hronek (21:31). Next were Noah Juulsen and Zadorov (16:10).
Thus, for at least the first game of his career, Zadorov was the 5D on the depth chart by that most fundamental metric. However, it goes a little deeper than that. Based solely on even-strength ice time, Zadorov’s 13:37 EV minutes rank him fourth among defenders and fifth overall.
So, that could be considered a top-four performance. In any case, there was a clear disparity between the amount of accountability placed on the trio of Hughes, Hronek, and Myers on Saturday and the trio of Zadorov, Cole, and Juulsen.
Therefore, the answer is nuanced, but it has always been a fruitless endeavor to extrapolate a firm conclusion from a single game performance. Is Zadorov a top-four defender for the Vancouver Canucks in the long run? is the real question we should be asking. Although that solution is also complex, at least we have more data to work with.
Let’s start with a season-by-season breakdown of Zadorov’s career to date, focusing on his placement on the team’s ice-time chart for each campaign. Zadorov played an average of 17:42 per game as a 19-year-old rookie with the Buffalo Sabres in 2014โ15, placing him tenth on the Buffalo blueline. However, that was an odd season with a rotating cast of Sabres playing in part. Zadorov came in sixth place on the list by total ice time.
Zadorov, a sophomore, was traded to the Colorado Avalanche for the 2015โ16 season the following year, but he did not advance far up the depth chart. Of the Avalanche defenders, Zadorov had the fifth-highest average ice time (16:56). It’s important to note, though, that Zadorov missed all but 22 games due to injuries.
But Colorado’s continued ascent to prominence had the unfavorable consequence of diminishing Zadorov’s influence. He dropped back to 17:12 a night and fifth place on the chart in 2018โ19; in 2019โ20, he was back to 17:46 and fifth place. Next, we headed to see the Chicago Blackhawks.
Zadorov played an average of 19:12 per night there, good for third on the Chicago blueline behind Duncan Keith and Connor Murphy, on a much worse team in a season cut short by COVID-19. That shouldn’t get you too excited, though, because Riley Stillman, our old friend, was averaging 18:13 on the same D corps.
That’s it, then. In his eleven NHL seasons, Zadorov has roughly twice played a top-four blueline position for the entire season: once at the age of 22 for a developing Colorado Avalanche team, and again at the age of 25 for a Chicago Blackhawks team that didn’t really have many better options.
This raises a lot of legitimate questions about Zadorov’s ability to play a top-four role for the Vancouver Canucks in the long run. Zadorov is 28 years old.Maybe a reasonable doubt, but definitely not certainty.
Supporters of the Flames will attest that Zadorov’s play as a defender was clearly improved by coach Darryl Sutter. During his two full seasons with the Flames, under Sutter’s coaching, Zadorov’s average ice time increased by nearly two minutes per night, and he also became a more valuable member of the team.
Zadorov had no chance in hell of breaking into the top four of Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Mackenzie Weegar, and Rasmus Andersson. But under Sutter, he played hockey that was on par with, if not better than, that of someone a little higher up the rankings.
Under new coach Ryan Huska in 2023โ2024, things were not going nearly as well. Huska, however, is no longer Zadorov’s coach. Now it’s Rick Tocchet, and Tocchet emphasizes personal accountability and responsibility a lot, which is a coaching profile not too unlike from Sutter’s.
The rigorous approach makes sense for a player like Zadorov, who is frequently referred to as having more tools than a toolbox. Additionally, Tocchet has two legendary NHL defenders, Adam Foote and Sergei Gonchar, who are both Russian and possess a unique set of insights that they can share with Zadorov.
It’s still an uphill battle, though. Zadorov is unquestionably a rock-solid 5D based on his personal history. Sure, one who can fill a higher position in the lineup when necessary. However, NHL coaches have continuously felt the need to move him down to their bottom pairing when it’s feasible and when there are other respectable top-four options.
After ten NHL seasons at age 28, it may be too much to expect Zadorov to become the Vancouver Canucks’ go-to top-four option every night.However, there are a few meager rays of hope.
Additionally, those advanced stats are the same for all players. Tocchet Effect is another factor to take into account. Referring back to the Saturday night ice-time totals, Myers is near the top at an astounding 22:01. This, during Myers’ finest Canucks season to date. Although Myers has played minutes similar to those in Vancouver previously, he has never performed them nearly as well, and most people will directly credit Tocchet’s influence for that success.
Numerous people have already pointed out Myers and Zadorov’s stylistic and demographic parallels. They are both very large. Both have an oversized wingspan and reach. Both have remarkably good footwork for players of their size and for NHL defenders in general.
However, both are also prone to spectacular turnovers, stupid play-reads, and the kinds of errors that send fans screaming from across the room.
Who knows what might happen in the end if Tocchet, along with Foote, Gonchar, and the rest of the coaching staff, can positively influence Zadorov as much as they have Myers. Zadorov is at the very least off to a better start. Myers was beginning to resemble a replacement-level NHL player before this season. Zadorov appeared to have mastered the 5D role and might be prepared for something more before this season.
Without a doubt, the Canucks would desperately need Zadorov to perform like a legitimate top-four talent in Vancouver. It is not to say, however, that he must in order to have a beneficial effect. All it takes to improve the overall blueline is to be that same elite, physically fit bottom pairing talent in Vancouver.
But if everything goes as well as it can, Zadorov being a top-four D in Vancouver would go even farther, and that result still seems plausible.