What Juan Soto brings to Yankee Stadium, and about that short porch.
Juan Soto is finally a Yankee, and the significance of this cannot be overstated. Soto, who turned 25 in October, has a job.946 OPS in parts of six seasons ranks him among the very best hitters his age in the sport’s history. That is not hyperbole; as we have recently and several times over the years, if you get off to a good start,
If you’re that young, your place in Cooperstown is almost guaranteed, barring injury or off-field issues. That’s why he’s been compared to Ted Williams for so long. (According to Baseball Reference, his closest player comparisons through the age of 24 are Bryce Harper and Frank Robinson.)
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Given his youth and track record, he is the safest bet that a team can make. In 2024, he’s projected to be the second-best hitter behind only Yordan Alvarez, which isn’t the same as second-best player. Soto’s defense is not a strength, but it is a significant upgrade for a disappointing offense that had the fourth-lowest OBP and an OPS that was nearly identical to Kansas City’s.
Even if he only stays with the Yankees for one season, which is not guaranteed despite the fact that he is represented by Scott Boras, he will provide the Yankees with something they haven’t had in recent memory.
The last Yankee lefty hitter to have an OPS+ higher than Soto’s 158 was Jason Giambi in 2002 and 2005.The last Yankee lefty outfielder to do it in a season with 500 or more plate appearances was the criminally underappreciated Bobby Murcer in 1971-72. What came before that? Mr. Roger Maris.
1) He’ll help to improve a truly dreadful outfield.
Aaron Judge was worth 5.3 WAR last year, an impressive figure considering how much time he missed due to injury. Last year, the Yankees’ outfield as a whole was worth 2.9 WAR, ranking sixth in the Majors. That is exactly what you think it is: the non-Judge outfielders were so bad as a group that they cost the Yankees about two games.
Soto was worth 5.5 WAR for San Diego, but he won’t be arriving alone, as the Padres also included the defensively elite Trent Grisham in the deal. The Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo from the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday. There are a lot of new outfielders on the team.
Juan Soto was dealt to the Yankees.
Using FanGraphs projections, we can show you how much the trio has improved recently. Because Judge rates so highly, he artificially inflates the entire group. However, because he was primarily positioned as a right fielder prior to this set of moves that may have him playing more in center, we’ll only show the team’s ranking in LF+CF combined, as well as outfield as a whole.
Late November, pre-trades
Outfield // 4th overall
LF+CF // 27th overall
After Verdugo trade
Outfield // 4th overall
LF+CF // 16th overall
After Soto-Grisham trade
Outfield // best overall
LF+CF // best overall
Fourth-best projected outfield to best may not appear to be a significant jump, but 27th-best projected left-and-center to best should pique your interest.
Last year, the Yankees gave nearly 1,500 plate appearances to players like Willie Calhoun, Jake Bauers, Billy McKinney, Franchy Cordero, and others, who hit.216/.279/.354 with a.633 OPS as outfielders. They’ve added about nine projected wins, owing primarily to Soto, but also because projections see both Verdugo and Grisham as average players, and “average” is quite valuable when you had a net negative last year.
3) He visits a park that isn’t as helpful as you think.
The effect of adding a powerful left-handed bat to Yankee Stadium, however, will not matter nearly as much as people expect, at least not for Soto. It’s true that the short porch in right field contributes to some home runs; according to Statcast park factors, only Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park has a higher home run factor for lefty bats over the last three seasons.
However, there is a cost to this: it is extremely difficult to hit doubles and triples, to the point where no park in full use over the last three seasons saw fewer lefty non-homer extra-base hits. Because there is so little ground to defend in right, teams can position their right fielders shallower against left-handed batters than anywhere else in the Majors – and they do.
Put it all together, and Yankee Stadium was a below-average hitter’s park (tied for fifth-weakest) from 2021 to ’23.
That is especially true for Soto, for one simple reason: he is an outstanding all-fields hitter. Yes, he’s a lefty. Sure, he’s powerful. When he gets the ball in the air, whether through a fly ball or a line drive, he’s incredibly balanced. Last year, only 25% of those balls were pulled, 45% went up the middle, and 30% went to the opposite field. They’re not cheapies when he hits the ball hard in the air to his pull side. They continue to be hit.
In fact, if he’d played all of his home games in Yankee Stadium last year, he’d have had fewer homers, because the deeper left and left-center in the Bronx would have swallowed up some of his opposite-field drives.
By Statcast’s figures, instead of the 35 he hit, he’d have had only 30 (if only the wall heights and distances of Yankee Stadium are considered) or 27 (if environmental factors are included as well). Either way, fewer, and it seems inadvisable to ask him to try to pull for more power. Only 34 of his 35 homers were actually considered, because he hit one against the Giants in Mexico City, without Statcast tracking. It was also to left-center field.) So sure, he’d have picked up some short porch jobs, like this one, or this one
Ronald Acuña Jr.’s great catch
As we discussed last week, it was difficult to find recent trades in which a young superstar was moved ahead of his final year of free agency. The teams that acquired Francisco Lindor and Mookie Betts would not undo their moves, and the team that acquired Jason Heyward would probably not either. Being the team that acquires the all-time great young player is almost never a bad idea. We don’t think the Yankees will be sorry either.