After failing to reach a one-year agreement, Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays will proceed to arbitration.
Guerrero was expected to get $20.4 million in his third arbitration hearing by MLB Trade Rumors. Guerrero made $14.5 million in the previous season while hitting.264/.345/.444, with 26 home runs and 94 RBIs. He was making around the same as fellow slugger Pete Alonso, a first baseman who reached a $20.5 million settlement with the New York Mets.
If a settlement isn’t reached, Guerrero will submit a 2024 request, the Blue Jays will respond with an offer, and they will present their case before an arbitrator at some point between January 29 and February 16 of next year.
The Blue Jays are considered a “file-and-trial” team, which means that unless a multi-year agreement is reached by both parties, they will proceed to a hearing once numbers are exchanged.
That’s what occurred with all-star shortstop Bo Bichette last season; he filed for a contract worth $7.5 million, which was $2.5 million higher than the team’s $5 million offer. Nevertheless, he ultimately consented to a $33.6 million, three-year contract that will keep him in the major leagues until 2025.
Guerrero, who is still two seasons away from becoming a free agent and is leaning toward a move onto the open market, may make such a result much more challenging. Arbitration hearings are based on individual numbers and similar individuals; nonetheless, the procedure can lead to resentment and frustration among players, which is a dangerous potential when dealing with a cornerstone player.
The last time the Blue Jays had a hearing was in 2019, when Ryan Tepera was rejected by the club’s offer of $1.8 million in favor of their offer of $1.525 million. Tepera left the hearing feeling disappointed.
Guerrero’s membership in a group of players who might change a franchise after 2025 raises the stakes even further. In addition to Bichette, the other members of the group who agreed to forego arbitration are Jordan Romano ($7.75 million), Cavan Biggio ($4.21 million), Tim Mayza ($3.59 million), Erik Swanson ($2.75 million), and Genesis Cabrera ($1.5125 million).
Also escaping arbitration were Daulton Varsho ($5.65 million), Danny Jansen ($5.2 million), Alejandro Kirk ($2.8 million), Santiago Espinal ($2.725 million), Trevor Richards ($2.15 million) and Nate Pearson ($800,000).
Next autumn, Jansen and Richards will be free agents.
In the fifteen years of the organization, the Blue Jays have participated in arbitration proceedings and emerged victorious nine times. The Blue Jays defeated Roberto Osuna ($5.3 million, instead of $5.8 million) and Marcus Stroman ($6.5 million, instead of $6.9 million) in 2018.