— Bryce Harper, after the Phillies’ National League Championship Series loss to Arizona
Bruce Harper, take note: It’s difficult to return. It’s not insurmountable. This is not a first. However, it’s challenging. And the Phillies front office is well aware of how difficult it will be as they embark on one of the most difficult tasks in sports assembling a team that will win the World Series two consecutive agonizing postseason losses.
During the NLCS, Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations for the Phillies, told The Athletic, “It is hard.” “And the evidence is that very few clubs are engaging in it, correct? The World Series won’t be returning.
Correct? Correct. It has been 23 years since a team has won two consecutive World Series. In the annals of the four main North American sports, that is the longest period without a repeat winner. How challenging is it then? That difficult.
And here’s something even more difficult for the Phillies in 2024: When division play began in 1969, only one team the 2004–05–06 Cardinals has attempted what the Phillies will try to accomplish:
Lose a World Series, advance to the following LCS, and then lose once again. then persevere through a third season to ultimately win everything.
How challenging is it then? That difficult.
Later in the same meeting, Dombrowski would explain, “You can take a step back sometimes just because you keep trying to do what you did last year and you don’t get it done.”
Thus, Dombrowski, general manager Sam Fuld, and owner John Middleton are aware of the challenge of the Phillies’ mission statement as their offseason plan starts to take shape. Their goal isn’t nearly as clear-cut as it was last winter, when they signed Trea Turner as a free agent straight out of the gate. They have difficult decisions ahead of them.
So where could they end up on the offseason road? This is a preliminary concept derived from discussions with agents, other teams, and Phillies executives.
How can Dave Dombrowski set up the Phillies for yet another successful postseason run? (USA Today/Eric Hartline)
CAN NOLA GO BACK?Over his nine-year career, Aaron Nola has thrown over 22,000 pitches, all of which have been for the Phillies. Will he ever toss another one, though?
Re-signing Dombrowski has been deemed the Phillies’ top priority. However, since Nola is about to enter his 31st season, signing him isn’t really their top priority this winter. Finding out as soon as possible if they can sign him is the goal.
Well, it’s definitely feasible for a team that already has five players with free-agent contracts worth nine figures. It’s interesting to note, though, how certain opposing teams are that the Phillies aren’t stepping up their game to win this specific bidding war.
The Phillies gave up some hints when they failed to sign Nola to a contract during spring training, which is one explanation for that.
The specifics of those discussions between Nola and his Paragon Sports agent Joe Longo are unknown. However, this is a reasonable approximation of the positions of the two sides at the time:
It is logical to assume that the Phillies made an initial offer of $150 million, or $25 million a year, spread over six years. In actuality, that is more than the six-year, $125 million contract that Jim Bowden of The Athletic had projected for Nola this winter.
However, a number of major-league sources claim that the two teams were not even close at the time. That would seem to suggest that Nola’s side was seeking an extension for a period of seven years at a cost of at least $200 million, if not more. That would place Nola’s estimated annual net worth at about $30 million, give or take a few million.
Is it a reasonable ask? Four pitchers have agreed to contracts worth at least $200 million and exactly seven guaranteed years since 2014. See how you perceive Nola’s comparisons:
Stephen Strasburg (2020-26): seven years, $245 million ($35M AAV)
David Price (2016-22): seven years, $217 million ($31M AAV)
Clayton Kershaw* (2014-20): seven years, $215 million ($30.7M AAV)
Max Scherzer (2015-21): seven years, $210 million ($30M AAV)
Cy Young Award trophies were displayed on the shelves of Scherzer, Kershaw, and Price, three of those pitchers. It was Strasburg’s World Series MVP Award. Even though Nola has been consistently good for a long time, he lacks all of the aforementioned qualities.
Nonetheless, in terms of innings pitched over the previous seven seasons, Nola is only surpassed by Gerrit Cole. Furthermore, according to Baseball Reference, Nola is just one of just five starters who has been worth at least 30 WAR during those seven seasons. The others are Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Scherzer, and Cole.
The Phillies have firsthand experience with all of that. However, they remained unmotivated this spring to close a hole that was reportedly between $50 and $75 million. So, the query is: Are they going to do that more frequently now?
Executives from rival teams say they wouldn’t be shocked if negotiations for Nola led to a seven-year contract, most likely with a higher average yearly salary than the Phillies gave in the spring. Given that Zack Wheeler is currently one year away from free agency and that the Phillies have an extension for him coming up, are they willing to go there as well? Too soon to comment. Don’t touch that dial, though.
IF IT’S NOT NOLA, WHAT THEN? Major-league sources who attended last week’s GM meetings claim that the Phillies were already hard at work creating the foundation for, well, Life Without Nola.
They reached out to other teams who might be interested in trading for a starting pitcher this winter. They also talked to representatives about a broad list of starters who were available as free agents, not just ace players.
It makes sense that the Phillies have pitching coach Caleb Cotham’s former Vanderbilt colleague, Sonny Gray, and rock sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25, at the top of their shopping list. Jordan Montgomery is also highly sought after. But even if Nola leaves, Wheeler remains a legitimate ace for the Phillies. And right-hander Andrew Painter, who was named MLB Pipeline’s 2022 minor-league pitcher of the year, is another player who might make a big difference. Painter is expected to make his Tommy John surgery return in 2025.
In order to replace Nola’s innings and presence, they are informing agencies and other teams that they are amenable to a variety of options.It’s inconceivable that Dombrowski wouldn’t be considered if Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, or Shane Bieber were moved. However, the Phillies’ depth issues are also so great that it appears more possible that they would sign one or more non-ace free agents than they will blow through their farm system in order to get an ace who is about to hit free agency.
However, they seem to be ambivalent about this one name that is frequently rumored. That would be Blake Snell, the probable National League Cy Young Award winner, whose walk rate, inconsistent play, and lack of volume year in and year out make him nearly the exact opposite of Nola. Snell might still be in play, though, if Nola takes a quick exit and Yamamoto signs with a team that has a stronger tradition of signing Japanese players.
THE CLOSER IS WHO? For free agent Josh Hader, the talk shows in Philadelphia are outperforming the percussion section. So avoid placing that wager.
Do you recall when the Phillies signed Craig Kimbrel a year ago and informed him that they didn’t see anyone being the team’s “nine-inning guy”? It seems like they’re going to go at it again this winter. Hader, who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pitch before the ninth inning since 2021, would therefore obviously not start that game.
With the strongest bullpen in baseball, the Phillies appear prepared to give manager Rob Thomson the freedom to mix and match his way through the closing innings once more. To add to it, they plan to shop for live bullpen arms. However, they haven’t indicated that they would be interested in bringing in a typical closer thus far. This is likely due in large part to the fact that their minor-league pitcher of the year, Orion Kerkering, looks set to become a key member of the bullpen as early as next season.
A competing CEO remarked, “To be honest, I’d be shocked if someone called on him because that’s just not a good contract.” “And I predict that in five seconds, if someone did, they would say yes.”
Does that imply, however, that the Phillies will bat in the same lineup in 2024?175 (11 for 63, 21 strikeouts) in the NLCS Games 6 and 7 versus Arizona? That also seems improbable.
To add pitching, the Phillies might make a trade from among their young outfielders. They may use this right-handed hitter as a backup in left field as they search for a corner outfielder. No matter how many games his team won the previous season, Dombrowski is not the kind to just run it back, as all of you students of recent front-office history should be aware.
Do you recall his 2011–14 Tigers? They made it to the American League Championship Series three times and the World Series once, finishing first in the AL Central for four consecutive seasons. and these are the well-known bats that Dombrowski added in the next offseason:
After 2011: Prince Fielder
After 2012: Torii Hunter
After 2013: J.D. Martinez
After 2014: Yoenis Cespedes
So who might be the Phillies’ 2024 equivalent of that group? Renfroe the Hunter? Adam Curry? Eddie Arroyo? Merrifield Whit? This week, the Phillies will be meeting with their pro scouts for multiple days to discuss inquiries such as that one. However, there is one thing about Dave Dombrowski that the baseball community is aware of.