The Cubs appear to be geniuses for passing on this highly-regarded free agent in the offseason.
The Chicago Cubs more than made up for that error by declining to offer former American League MVP Jose Abreu a three-year contract in free agency, even with their current knowledge of how poorly the misguided first base duo of Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer performed in 2023.
Former White Sox first baseman Abreu reportedly turned down a two-year offer from Jed Hoyer and signed a three-year, $58.5 million contract with the Houston Astros instead. Things for Abreu in H-Town have swiftly become worse after a dismal first season with the team.
His Baseball Savant page has all the information you require. Regarding XBA, XSLG, WOBA, and XWOBA, the 37-year-old is in the worst 1 percent of the league; regarding hard hits, he is in the bottom 2 percent, and regarding walks, he is in the bottom 7 percent. As a result, I ended up with a -31 OPS+ for the year (to be honest, I had no idea that one could even go negative in OPS+).
Abreu has just stopped getting walks in 2024. Even with his career walk rate of 7.0%, which is below league average, the veteran is only drawing walks in 2.4% of his plate appearances. His exit velocity data, which are even lower than his career-worst numbers from a year ago, indicate that he is a player who is completely out of gas.
By not signing Jose Abreu, the Cubs avoided a severe blow, and with Michael Busch now in the fold, they have a bright future.
It is startling, to say the least, to consider that Houston will be responsible for paying not just $19.5 million this season, but also another $19.5 million in 2025. It is a little unsettling to consider that the Cubs, who place a high importance on maximizing value with each player on their 26-man roster, would have been able to avoid Jason Heyward’s dead-weight contract in exchange for Abreu’s, who appears to be even worse.
Rather, Hoyer made a trade this winter for Michael Busch, the top prospect for the Dodgers, and with his little major league experience thus far, he has shown promise. With a 131 OPS+ through the first few weeks of the season, the former first-round pick, who is 26 years old, is starting to emerge as a long-term option at the position.
On sometimes, the decisions you choose not to make prove to be just as important as the ones you do. Jed Hoyer, in his quiet way, may have made one of the best choices of his time as the Cubs’ president of baseball operations by standing firm on Abreu.