Just In: 2024 PECOTA estimates show that the Chicago Cubs still have a long way to go.
When Baseball Prospectus released its yearly PECOTA estimates, the Chicago Cubs seemed to be living in the past. The Northsiders are still not considered the favorites to win the National League Central, even though they almost made the playoffs the previous season after an 83-win campaign, while the division-winning Brewers went into sale mode. Indeed, they are expected to be in a comparable, if marginally better, position than they were the previous year—that is, not outstanding and in need of some bounces to be a serious contender.
There are a lot of qualifiers to that, but before we dive in, let’s review the data. Though it’s not quite as bad as it was last year, PECOTA currently has the Cubs in second place in the division behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
Projections for the 2024 National League Central Standings using Baseball Prospectus PECOTA
Chicago Cubs, 80.2-81.8
Milwaukee Brewers, 78.8-83.2
Cincinnati Reds, 78.3-83.7
Pittsburgh Pirates, 73-89
St. Louis Cardinals, 85.5-76.5
At this stage of their rebuild, the Cubs will not settle for anything less than a.500 record, especially after narrowly missing out on what would have been their first postseason participation since 2020. Still, it’s a big improvement over their 77-win prediction from the previous season, which they handily exceeded. They were also closer to a 90-win squad by Pythagorean win/loss record than an 83-win one.
There’s every reason to think the 2024 estimate is a touch off as well. The Cubs will begin the season with Shota Imanaga, a high-upside prospect who can play first base, hopefully making up for the loss of Marcus Stroman and Michael Busch. Cody Bellinger has not yet signed a new contract. Hector Neris also gives a bullpen that needs support surrounding Julian Merryweather, Adbert Alzolay, and Mark Leiter Jr. further assurance. As top pitching prospect Cade Horton waits in the wings, the team is also closer to receiving significant contributions from their renowned farm system, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Jordan Wicks available early on. Of course, the icing on the cake is new manager Craig Counsell, who was brought on board because in 2023, the Cubs missed opportunities to win.
However, that does not imply that Jed Hoyer has done enough. It’s difficult to be optimistic when the team is only assigned a 31.2% probability to enter the postseason and only saw a 1% rise in their World Series odds from the previous year (0.2% to 1.2%). Granted, things are probably not as bad as PECOTA claims. Being in a situation where the division’s biggest market club STILL needs to rely on high-variance players playing to their full potential and prospects blooming is not a good way to get past the postseason hump.
PECOTA estimates show why the Cubs must continue to add players.
These forecasts are not entirely negative for two additional, deeper reasons. For starters, with only five games separating the Cubs and Cardinals, this division is the tightest in all of baseball. Despite having their worst season since the 1990s, St. Louis seems ready for a favorable regression, especially with Sonny Gray joining the team. Still, they look like a much more beatable squad than in previous years. The division is left with a lot of concerns, especially considering the Brewers team recently traded away Corbin Burnes, as well as the Reds and Pirates teams.
Furthermore, PECOTA does not project for players who are not currently on the team. Regaining Bellinger’s slash line of.307/.356/.525 (134 wRC+) and his excellent glove would go a long way toward positioning this team as the front-runner in the Central. Although it seems improbable, adding a more expensive player—like Jordan Montgomery or Matt Chapman—would also make a ton of sense in the proper trade.
With projected wins of 101.1 and 100.7, respectively, the Dodgers and Braves are the greatest teams in baseball elsewhere. It’s natural to be angry that the Cubs aren’t projecting to be more competitive, but they were never going to be that good in 2024. PECOTA’s forecasts should, if anything, provide even more incentive to add that game-changing piece.