Rangers battle themselves and Celtic with coefficient defiance as dogs of war grab the Champions League golden ticket.
This season, the Czech Republic has three clubs in the European competition’s last 16, while Scotland only has Rangers. This season, only three teams in Europe have gained more coefficient points than Viktoria Plzeň. In comparison, fifteen nations have scored more points than Scotland this season, and we have been staring down the barrel of the consequences.
Rangers’ draw against Benfica in Lisbon on Thursday night maintains Scotland’s 10th-place position. We have a 0.5-point lead over the Czech Republic in 11th place going into the second leg next Thursday.
In the Europa League, Philippe Clement’s team drew 2-2 with Benfica, Sparta lost 1-5 at home to Liverpool, and Slavia lost 4-2 to AC Milan in the San Siro. In the Conference League in Switzerland, Viktoria Plzeň could only draw 0-0 with Servette, which might be a critical tie.
If Plzeň wins their home leg, they will add 0.5 points to the Czech Republic’s total—the same amount they trail Scotland by. That performance alone would propel the Czechs above Scotland in the rankings, regardless of what happens to the Prague teams. If two countries are deadlocked in the standings, the most recent season’s point total will be used to determine the winner.
Rangers will most likely need to progress against Benfica in order to stay in the top ten for another week. A tie at Ibrox adds 0.2 points to Scotland’s total, a win adds 0.4 points, and the bonus point for reaching the Europa League quarterfinals adds another 0.2 points.
But what’s the big deal with sliding out of the top ten ranked leagues? If we finish 11th behind the Czech Republic, it is bad news for CELTIC, since if they win the league next season (24/25) they will have to join the playoff round to qualify for the Champions League.
After three seasons of automatic qualification, this would be a harsh blow—and may confirm Peter Lowell’s call to save £72 million in case Celtic do not make the Champions League. If Rangers win the championship, their own club coefficient may protect them from the impacts of Scotland’s country coefficient falling down the rankings due to a change in tournament rules.
Celtic left Reach Publishing Services Limited.
Champions League champions are automatically entered into the following season’s tournament. Previously, if the Champions League winner had already qualified automatically through their domestic league, their “spare” automatic berth would be awarded to the country’s 11th-placed champion.
In the new arrangement, which begins next season, the spare automatic entry goes to the champion with the highest club coefficient in Champions League qualifying—basically any champion from the leagues placed 11th or lower.
It is extremely rare that the Champions League winner does not automatically qualify based on their league position, with notable exceptions being Chelsea in 2012 and Liverpool in 2005. So, while not certain, the Champions League winners’ automatic admission ticket is likely to be up for grabs.
This regulation change is excellent news for the Rangers. Our coefficient is set to drop next season, and we could finish as low as 16th in the league, but Rangers would still have the highest club coefficient.
The Rangers now have 52 coefficient points in season 24/25, the most of any team outside of the top seven leagues. Their closest competitors for the spare automatic berth are Croatian champions Dinamo Zagreb, who currently have 42 coefficient points for next season.
Rangers’ Abdallah Sima celebrates Reach Publishing Services Limited.
Shakhtar Donetsk of Ukraine is the next closest competitor with 41 points, followed by Austria’s RB Salzburg with 40 points. The coefficient at the end of next season will be what counts, so this 10-point difference might be closed, and any of those teams could conceivably overtake Rangers, but that is exceedingly unlikely.
Rangers have added 14 points to their club coefficient this season, while Shakhtar has only 10 points, Zagreb has nine, and Salzburg has seven.
As a result, even if Scotland finishes outside the top ten this season and Rangers wins the title the next season, Rangers will automatically qualify for the Champions League. However, if Celtic win the title next season, they will face a difficult qualifying round against the champion of a similarly placed nation. Our second-place squad, whomever it is, will have three rounds of Champions League qualifying to traverse.
It’s all to play for in Glasgow next Thursday, as we rely on Rangers to keep this season’s top-10 race alive for another week. Next season, we are expected to tumble much deeper in the standings, which will have far-reaching consequences, but that is a fight for another day.