The 49ers’ greatest vulnerability going into the postseason is that they haven’t been able to stop this team at all this season.
The Niners have 11 double-digit victories, the greatest offense in the NFL, and a defense that isn’t far behind after 17 weeks. This has caused the 49ers to trail just the Baltimore Ravens in the NFL in terms of point differential.
However, we have also witnessed San Francisco’s kryptonite. Their four losses have all had one thing in common. You can probably predict what ESPN’s Bill Barnwell had to say about the Niners after going over each playoff contender to identify the biggest weakness:
The 49ers’ shortcoming: interceptions
However, in Purdy’s four losses? At a 7.5% interception percentage, he has thrown nine interceptions out of 120 pass attempts. Once more, interceptions occur more frequently in losses than in wins; but, his rate of interceptions in losses is more than twice as high as the 2.9% league average.
This is a classic case of chicken-or-the-egg syndrome. Instead of Purdy just tossing interceptions in games that happen to be losses, the 49ers are more likely to lose due of Purdy’s interception rate. The Browns, Ravens, and Vikings, who have three of the top four defenses, have caused Purdy’s defeats three times.
Are Purdy’s interceptions frequently made together? Although we haven’t had enough time to observe him play, I believe there is merit to the theory that Purdy becomes uneasy or lacks confidence after throwing a pick. It is more a function of the game script than it is of confidence.
By turnovers per drive, the Browns and Vikings rank 16th and 17th in the NFL, respectively. After forcing numerous turnovers, both sides go extended periods of time without producing any. Given that Purdy has two interceptions that were tipped in the air and that Baltimore is fourth in turnovers per drive, it is reasonable to be more lenient with him.
The only NFC teams in the top-10 of turnovers per drive are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys, if we’re examining the 49ers’ route to the Super Bowl in terms of whose defenses will be the biggest threat to force turnovers. The 49ers offense, led by Brock Purdy, has already destroyed both of those groups.
Additionally, Barnwell named one team that each squad should try to avoid. This is the 49ers’ most recent setback:
Team to stay away from: Baltimore Ravens. Although the Ravens’ dominance over the 49ers in San Francisco only a few days ago makes this one seem a bit apparent, Baltimore has also been the greatest starting team in the NFL. With the greatest first-quarter (plus-66, tied with the Cowboys) and first-half (plus-142) point differentials, the Ravens are the most likely squad to lead by a significant margin while playing the 49ers. And, as we witnessed during the Christmas break, beware if the Ravens secure that lead.
A little over a month from now, Baltimore and San Francisco will play in Las Vegas, and Purdy’s turnovers in that game will be the main topic of conversation.
At halftime, the score was 4 points, and the 49ers got the ball to start the second half. That too came after two interceptions in the first half. After then, the Niners had their worst quarter of the year, losing 17-0 to their opponents.
The Niners offense has very little chance of having four consecutive drives without scoring, having a kicker flagged for unnecessary roughness, or having four turnovers in a succession.