Preview of the Toronto Blue Jays 2024 season: George Springer’s expected output, projected lineup, and rotation
The 2023 season for the Toronto Blue Jays was successful in certain aspects. Despite having an uneven schedule in the American League East—the hardest division in baseball—John Schneider’s team managed to win 89 games and make it to the postseason for the second time in a row.
The good news for the 2023 Jays is now complete. They lost two games against the Twins in the playoffs. This indicates that over their last three postseason visits, Toronto has been swept in the Wild Card Series. The Jays have dropped 10 of their previous 11 postseason games overall, including seven in a row. The most important objective is to return to the postseason in 2024, but achieving a deep run is a more pressing concern. That establishes the scene for the next season.
In terms of runs scored and on-base percentage, the Jays finished sixth in the AL in the previous season. The Giants signed third baseman Matt Chapman, while Justin Turner has virtually taken Brandon Belt’s role as Toronto’s starting designated hitter. They might have to consider slight to major offensive downgrades at every position.
One of the main factors in Toronto’s success the previous season was their rotation. With a starter’s ERA of 3.85 and a FIP of 4.15, that rotation was third in the MLB in 2023. By 2024, that rotation will still be strong and full of incumbents, but there is a big question mark at the back end. This is due to the fact that Manoah hasn’t been the same since his breakthrough season in 2022. This spring, the difficulties and worries have not decreased.
During the previous season, the Toronto relief corps was largely a strength. Their 3.91 bullpen FIP ranked sixth in MLB, while their 3.68 ERA ranked them ninth in the majors. The Jays’ pen was able to work just 557 innings last season, which was the fifth-lowest amount in MLB thanks to their excellent rotation.
How much will Matt Chapman be missed by them?
It’s shocking the Jays didn’t re-sign Chapman considering the going rates these days (he inked a $54 million deal with the Giants, though it was full of opt-outs). Let’s just say that we will miss him. Only Bichette’s 4.9 WAR from the previous season surpassed his 4.4 WAR.
Chapman is still an excellent third base fielder, and before to suffering a finger injury that ended the season, he was hitting like an MVP contender. Chapman’s defense is enough to earn him an All-Star spot even if his offensive production is “merely” slightly above average.
The Jays are currently planning to make Kiner-Falefa the starting hot corner instead of Chapman. Even though he won’t be quite as good as Chapman with the glove, IKF should still be useful, but his attacking output will significantly decline. Think about:
IKF’s OPS+ from the previous season was 78, whereas Chapman’s was 108.
IKF’s OPS+ over the last three seasons is 83, whereas Chapman’s is 108.
IKF’s OPS+ during their respective careers is 81, whereas Chapman’s is 117.
With the probable narrow margins in the AL, the Jays could be looking at a steep loss of almost three wins overall at the position.
Is George Springer slipping away?
Prior to the 2021 season, the Jays acquired Springer from Houston for a $150 million contract. Despite his ongoing health and durability issues, Springer played a crucial role in their last two postseason teams. Although Springer was in the best health of his career last season, his worth declined.
With Springer playing non-premium right field instead of his former position as center field, Springer’s career-worst OPS of.732 in 154 games is all the more depressing.
The fact that Springer’s batted-ball numbers don’t offer much cause for optimism is also concerning. Springer’s xwOBA (what’s this?) of.332 from the previous season is much below his career average, and it is the third consecutive full season that that metric has declined.
He was in the 44th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate and the 29th percentile in terms of average exit velocity off the bat in 2023 among big-league batters.
Against fastballs, his expected and actual numbers fell. That’s concerning, as is the sharp decline in Springer’s ability to pull the ball. With his defensive deterioration and reduced sprint speed, 34-year-old Springer could be a cause for concern going forward.
Particularly for a player like Springer who has previously performed at an All-Star level, decline is rarely linear; yet, with three years remaining on his deal, he must recover in 2024.
What elements would a successful season include?
Of course, the goal of every team that looks good on paper heading into a season is to win the World Series, and the 2024 Blue Jays are no exception. Nevertheless, we will accept the team’s recent postseason shortcomings and set a more reasonable objective for them: for the second time in franchise history, they will qualify for the playoffs for the third time in a row, and they will also aim to go deep into October.
Naturally, subjectively speaking, what constitutes a deep run is reaching the ALCS for the first time since 2016.From a roster perspective, this isn’t very pressing because nearly every key member of the team has a contract that runs through at least the 2025 season.
Nevertheless, there may be adjustments made in the dugout and possibly even in the front office if the Jays miss the postseason or even lose in the first round.
Making the playoffs despite competing in the brutal AL East is a commendable accomplishment; most forecasts have them finishing in the upper 80s, which ought to be plenty; yet, the Jays must more than “just” a postseason berth in order to consider 2024 a success.