The Blue Jays are interested in free agent slugger Jorge Soler, by Mark Feinsand.
The Jays’ entry into the battle is not surprising, as Toronto has supposedly been considering a number of position-player trade and free agent alternatives. The Blue Jays’ additions to what was a mediocre lineup in 2023 have been restricted to more defensive-minded picks like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kevin Kiermaier. This is because Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto are no longer available.
GM Ross Atkins stated at a media appearance earlier this week that the Blue Jays “most likely be in the outfield or DH category” and might add just one additional bat.
More so as a designated hitter than as a reliable everyday outfield player, Soler matches that description. Over the course of the last two seasons, Soler has made just 89 appearances for the Marlins in the outfield. In 2022, he played left field, and in 2023, right field.
Although Soler’s performance in right field has never been well-liked by public defensive metrics, his 875 career innings played as a left fielder have brought him a little bit closer to being an acceptable player.
Given that both Kiermaier and Varsho are left-handed batters, there’s a chance that when a southpaw is on the mound, right-handed hitter Soler will get some action in left field; one of them will move to the bench, while the other will play in center field.
The Blue Jays would likely be happy to accept a tradeoff if Soler could match his 2022 left field numbers (-1 Defensive Runs Saved, -2 Outs Above Average, -2.5 UZR/150) with his strong offensive numbers from 2023, especially since Soler would still be playing more often as a DH. This is despite the Jays’ recent emphasis on defense.
During 580 plate appearances for Miami last season, Soler hit.250/.341/.512 with 36 home runs, good for a 126 wRC+. With one year and $13 million left on his Marlins contract, Soler opted to exercise his opt-out clause, saying that it was a good enough year. Instead, he chose free agency and the prospect of a greater salary.
In the 2021โ22 summer, Soler signed a three-year, $36MM contract with the Fish; however, he struggled to a 95 wRC+ in an injury-plagued 2022 season.
While Soler’s recovery year made sense due to his improved health, it also followed the same pattern of inconsistent play that has characterized his eleven Major League seasons.
Soler, a highly anticipated prospect in the Cubs system who entered the majors as a greatly hyped prospect, has a lifetime 119 wRC+, which has been supported by three especially impressive offensive seasons: 2018, 2019, (when he led the AL with 48 home runs), and last season.
But despite his defensive displays and a few other seasons where he produced offense more in line with league average, Soler’s 870 career games in the Show have only yielded 7.4 fWAR.
Given that Soler struggled with the Royals prior to being sold to the Braves at the 2021 deadline, the 2021 season may be the best representation of his unpredictable character and high ceiling.
All of a sudden, the light went out, as Soler went on a rampage upon joining the Braves, winning MVP of the World Series while Atlanta won the pennant. Entering his age-32 season, Soler isn’t exactly a sure thing at the plate. MLB Trade Rumors projected a three-year, $45MM deal (Soler rated 16th on our list of the top 50 free agents for the winter) reflecting this uncertainty regarding his offensive and lack of defensive utility.
However, if Soler continues to hit like he did in 2023, at this comparatively low price tag, he would be a steal. Additionally, moving out of roomy loanDepot Park might aid Soler’s efforts.
However, Toronto’s Rogers Centre was only marginally more hitter-friendly than loanDepot Park in 2023, according to Statcast’s Park Factor metrics. This could offset any combination of the Blue Jays’ strong pitching and defense, their lack of hitting, or some of the effects of the new outfield dimensions brought about by the Jays’ ballpark renovations.