In 2024, the Braves should make testing their young pitchers a top priority.
This season, the Atlanta Braves must assess and develop their young arms in the minor leagues. The Atlanta Braves have work ahead of them given that starting pitcher Spencer Strider’s UCL injury may require surgery and may prevent him from playing in 2024 and 2025.
You see, Strider was expected to be the cornerstone of a rotation that already had Max Fried (a free agent after 2024) and Charlie Morton (both of whom will turn 41 soon after the season and have no more contract control) potentially leaving.
The Braves are in a dangerous situation, though, as Strider might miss the entire season. Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez are the only current starters who could play through 2024, and both of them have injury concerns due to Sale’s recent history and López’s workload after several years of relief. It’s likely that Bryce Elder, who played in the majors all but once in 2023, will also spend the entire season in Atlanta.
The Braves are expected to have an abundance of choices for rotation during the summer. In order to survive a season marred by rotation injuries to players like Kyle Wright and Fried, the Braves last year used thirteen “true starters” in addition to three relievers who opened games.
The starting lineup’s top players are still with the squad; however, Yonny Chirinos, Kolby Allard, Jared Shuster, and Michael Soroka have all signed with new teams as of 2024.
No, in 2025, Atlanta won’t be in pain for innings. They can “backfill” the rotation to get through 162 games with Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Allan Winans, adding to Atlanta’s current rotation depth and providing innings over the summer.
However, in order to get ready for 2025, Atlanta must give priority to two groups of pitchers in 2024 when it comes to major league time. The first group consists of AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, two of the best prospects.
Though Smith-Shawver began the season in High-A Rome, he made his big league debut last June at just 21 years old. Alex Anthopoulos, a fantastic athlete who is still relatively new to pitching in comparison to his colleagues, told the media that he was throwing in major league baseball at the level of a sophomore in college because of his raw athleticism and arm talent.
Nevertheless, the young pitcher’s entire offseason of growth was evident in Grapefruit League play, where he projected as a more well-rounded pitcher with a respectable four-pitch mix and a changeup that flashed as a real weapon during spring training. Having begun the season at AAA Gwinnett, he has only made one start against Lousiville, pitching two thirds of an inning while allowing three runs on two singles and three walks.
Despite his one start, he has one of the highest ceilings in the club and needs chances to test his newer pitch mix and “stuff” against major league hitters in 2024 as well as increase his workload (he pitched 87.1 innings in the regular season last year).
Following the draft, Waldrep, Atlanta’s first-round selection from the University of Florida, had a spectacular ascent through the minor league ranks, pitching at all four levels of the organization’s hierarchy. The 22-year-old advanced from Single-A Augusta to AAA Gwinnett during his final start of the previous season, pitching 29.1 innings and striking out 41 batters—two records for any 2023 draftee.
Waldrep started the season at AA Mississippi after being invited to spring training as a non-roster player and playing in one game. His splitter, which may be the best non-fastball in Atlanta’s system, and his healthy workload—he pitched 131 innings last season between professional and college ball—make him the best option to be able to handle a full season in the major leagues if necessary.
But because he will be required, Atlanta must give him the opportunity to assess the caliber of his stuff against major leaguers and acquire comfort at the highest level this season.
The other two are Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa, two major league starters who recently recovered from severe injuries. With Anderson pitching a no-hitter into the fifth inning of game three of the 2021 World Series and Ynoa dominating seven games in early 2021 to record a 4-1 record and 2.29 ERA before breaking his hand punching a bullpen bench and missing three months, both pitchers have established themselves at the major league level.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2022, Ynoa is returning to competition and has been assigned to AAA Gwinnett. (In actuality, he is supposed to start Tuesday afternoon’s road game against Omaha.) One of the most important things to keep an eye on with Ynoa is where his velocity settles in and whether he has established a solid third pitch.
Pitching primarily with two pitches, Ynoa’s 2021 “breakout” season saw him use his 96 mph fastball just under 50% of the time and his mid-80s slider around the same. His solid changeup accounted for the remaining 5–6% of his pitch use. This pitch mix is comparable to that of Spencer Strider, who felt it was crucial to hone his curveball in the winter.
Ynoa’s fastball averaged just under 94 mph in spring training, which may have been the result of a spring ramp-up, a shoulder ailment that kept him from practicing earlier in camp, or evidence that he is still recovering from the 18-month Tommy John surgery.
While this is going on, Anderson has less time to “figure it out,” as his surgery was scheduled for April 2023, which means he won’t be back on the mound until later in the year. In 2021, he demonstrated three pitches, the best of which was his excellent changeup. However, his third pitch was a curveball with a low run value rating.
According to reports, Anderson has been improving his mechanics during his recuperation by attempting to use his lower body more for power creation and by somewhat modifying his arm slot, which used to be extremely high and excessive.
Despite his expected second-half debut this year, he will have a shorter ramp up than others for the 2025 season. He is a big game pitcher who has been successful at the top level and in the most crucial situations.
There are alternatives within the club; over the past few years, the Braves have committed more money to pitching prospects in the draft than any other team in baseball. It is unknown if Atlanta intends to alter the officially announced schedule for bringing them to the majors in light of Strider’s injury and the team’s increased anticipated need for major-league pitchers in 2025.
After the farm system has completed a few weeks of starts, we will examine prospect performances to determine whether any reasonable timeline adjustments need to be made and to assess how the most recent recruits to the organization