How much was Green Bay’s probability of making the playoffs affected by the Buccaneers loss?
Here is the current playoff image.
The Green Bay Packers now face more challenges to their playoffs hopes after the weekend’s results dropped them from the No. 7 and last playoff berth in the NFC to the No. 11 club. However, this does not imply that hope is lost or even waning. Know this about the Packers’ prospects of making the playoffs:
Can the NFC North be won by the Packers?, No, after this weekend, that ship has sailed. What is the likelihood that the Packers will even make it to the playoffs?
The New York Times simulator indicates that the Packers’ chances of making the playoffs are about 25%. The Packers will still have a better than 95% chance of making the playoffs even if they win their remaining three games against Carolina, Minnesota, and Chicago.
What needs to occur in order for the Packers to receive a wild card?
Although they still have a solid chance if they win, the Packers are now facing the following new problems:
- They are now one game behind the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams. Although the Packers have the advantage in the tiebreaker against both clubs, they must lose to Los Angeles and New Orleans once more in order to finish ahead of them and secure a postseason berth.
- The Packers require another loss for Seattle, ideally against Pittsburgh or an NFC team. It’s “Monday Night Football” between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seahawks.
- The Packers can defeat Minnesota in their home game, but in order to finish ahead of the Vikings, they must also lose one of the Vikings’ last two games against Detroit.
- The Atlanta Falcons, who own the tiebreaker against Green Bay, and the Packers are still deadlocked. The Packers might be able to avoid Atlanta in a three-way tiebreaker (as they did with the Saints), but they wouldn’t mind if the Falcons suffered one more setback.
- We’re aware that you’re eager to jump into the comments section and cite Jim Mora’s disbelieving “Playoffs?!” statement while criticizing the Packers for not playing like a postseason squad. However, two of their final three opponents have a worse record than them, while the third hasn’t been playing well lately.
Assuming the Packers win all of their remaining games. Why wouldn’t they make it to the playoffs?
Even at 9-8, there would be a good possibility for Green Bay to qualify for the postseason. But if two of the subsequent scenarios materialize, it would still be out.
The Vikings end the season 9–8 after sweeping the Lions. With a superior conference record, that would give the Vikings a tiebreaker advantage against the Packers. This is especially important for three-way tiebreakers, which determine the victor by first identifying the best team in each division.
Put another way, in the event if the Vikings, Saints, and Packers were all tied for the final playoff slot, the Vikings would advance to the divisional tiebreaker and be matched against the Saints, leaving the Packers out of the equation. In any case, the Vikings won the matchup because they defeated the Saints head-to-head.
The Seahawks either go 3-1 with the Titans being their lone loss, or they win the other games. Seattle would finish 9-8 in the latter case, share the same conference record as Green Bay, and have a better record against opponents they face frequently. Seattle will have a superior record at the end if the first scenario occurs.
The remaining games are won by the Rams. The only way Los Angeles could beat the Packers in the end would be to do that. In the head-to-head tiebreaker, Green Bay is ahead.
The Falcons secure their last three games but are not victorious in the South. There isn’t a head-to-head tiebreaker because Green Bay and the Falcons currently share the identical record. Though doing so would force Green Bay to play the other two South teams, Atlanta could also win the NFC South, eliminating the need for a matchup with the Packers. If only Green Bay could get Atlanta to lose another game.The losing team Saints or Bucs retains their postseason spot. Now that the Bucs have a head-to-head tiebreaker, Tampa Bay needs to lose twice more to finish behind the Packers; however, the Bucs are currently leading the NFC South after a tiebreaker against the Saints. This puts Green Bay and New Orleans in a fight for a wild card.
The Packers have a head-to-head tiebreaker here even though they are trailing the Saints by a game. Thus, if Tampa Bay maintains the South, New Orleans is probably going to lose, which gives Green Bay the upper hand once more.
To cut a long tale short, it would be disastrous if New Orleans won the South because that would mean there would be two teams fighting for a postseason slot with the Packers and a head-to-head tiebreaker against Green Bay.
The good news is that these teams that are playing Green Bay haven’t shown they can win any more games. Unfortunately, neither has Green Bay.
What will the Packers be rooting for in the upcoming week?
First, on Monday night, Packers supporters will want Philadelphia to defeat Seattle. The Saints and Rams play each other next week (Week 16), hence one of those teams will lose. Though it’s marginally more likely that the Rams will lose, the New York Times simulator doesn’t predict a significant difference in Green Bay’s chances of qualifying for the postseason in either scenario, so it’s probably not something to worry about.
Otherwise, the Packers are supporting:
- Why are you reading this if the Packers don’t win against the Panthers?
- Falcons defeat vs the Colts
- Seahawks to lose to the Titans
- The Vikings will lose to the Lions.
- The Jaguars will triumph over the Bucs.
- While not necessary for everything to work out for Green Bay, each of those results would be beneficial.
Will a loss next week mean the end for the Packers?
No, the New York Times still believes that the Packers have a 15-20% chance of making the playoffs if they win their next two games and Green Bay loses to Carolina and all of the aforementioned scenarios come to pass.