Why the Phillies are not connected to Blake Snell is a mystery.
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All we have is this. The closer we get to the Winter Meetings in early December, the more activity there is. Right now, the only thing we have is potential. It’s no secret that the Phillies are looking for a starting pitcher. Although Dave Dombrowski, the president of baseball operations, stated that they would rather keep Aaron Nola than explore other possibilities, not everything a baseball official says during this time of year should be believed.
They’ll be connected to further elite pitchers. That’s the way things are.According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Phillies are considering Sonny Gray. The Phillies’ interest in Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, and other players shouldn’t come as a surprise.Blake Snell was one name that was purposefully omitted. The reason for this is that a well-known national baseball journalist is promoting the idea that the Phillies favor Snell over Nola.
That’s the one I’m shaking my head at.Bob Nightengale of USA Today has often connected Snell to the Phillies. Many general managers believe Snell will sign a deal with the Phillies, according to a report from Nightengale on Sunday. The Phillies are “favorites” to sign Snell, he wrote yesterday.It would be enough to say that the Phillies are interested in Snell, but it’s very unlikely that they consider him as their best option to close a gap at the top of the rotation.
Of Nola, Snell, Yamamoto, and Montgomery, the top four, Snell is the least suitable for the Phillies.Later this week, Snell, 30, is most certain to receive his second Cy Young Award. Pitching for the Padres to a 2.25 ERA in 32 starts, he was outstanding in 2023.Snell had the greatest walks per nine innings among eligible starts at 4.95, but he also was second only to Spencer Strider in strikeouts per nine innings at 11.70. At 3.70, Taijuan Walker had the sixth-highest walks-per-nine at the end.
His success in 2023 can best be explained by his superiority when wearing runners on. Opposing batters batted.174 with a.528 OPS while there were men on base. The stats decrease to.152 with a.470 OPS when there are runners in scoring position. In 2023, with runners on base, batters batted.289 with an.816 OPS against Nola. Benefit, Snell.
The best thing about Snell is that he can get both lefties and righties out. The idea that some managers are still using platoons against Snell is perplexing. In 2023, righties performed worse against Snell (.176/.284/.281) than lefties (.204/.339/.311).Aces execute pitches in tight areas and strike out batters on both sides of the plate, but Snell isn’t particularly remarkable in any other way.
Snell’s incapacity to accumulate innings comparable to some of the other best pitchers in the game is a criticism leveled at him. Although 23 pitchers threw more innings than Snell during the season, Snell is still the favorite to win the Cy Young award.In 2023, Logan Webb and Zac Gallenโthe other two NL finalistsโthrew at least 210 innings. Compared to Snell, Webb recorded 108 more outs. Compared to Snell, Gallen recorded 90 more outs.
An outsider’s assessment of the seasons of the top starting pitchers in the game often begins with ERA, with innings pitched serving as a secondary metric. Perhaps it’s time to get back to the basics and start using innings pitched instead of ERA. Even with a 4.50 ERA and 220 innings pitched, you probably won’t be the Cy Young winner. However, you are a far stronger candidate than the man with 170 innings and a 2.10 ERA if you have 220 innings and a 3.50 ERA.
It is a value-related issue. If you’re not convinced, think about this. With 4.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement, or fWAR, at the end of 2023, Snell finished in the running for his second Cy Young Award. In the worst season, Nola.
Durable starters are more crucial than ever because of the frequency of tight reliever usage patterns, roster restrictions on pitchers, and minor league option limitations. In 2023, Snell tallied 180 innings, which is a respectable total in the modern game. The problem is that twice in his career, he has amassed more innings than 130 innings. Cy Young campaigns were run in both years.
Scott Boras, his agent, will highlight Snell’s left arm’s low mileage. Perhaps a team will persuade itself that they can spend more than $200 million for Snell’s services and get more from him.Despite what the reports say, it would be astonishing if that team turned out to be the Phillies.They have benefited from possessing two of the advantages for years.
Nola has thrown 1,422 innings for the Phillies in the last nine years, so it’s reasonable to wonder if he can stay that way for another six or seven. Nevertheless, any team that signs him can be reasonably certain that they are getting a pitcher who will start nearly every game for the next two or three years.
Dave Dombrowski has put four things above anything else throughout his time with the Phillies. Star position player talent ranks first, high end velocity/stuff in the bullpen ranks second, youth and athleticism injection ranks third, and innings certainty is fourth, along with a potent 1-2 out of the rotation.
The Phillies searched for a middle-of-the-rotation arm with a stronger durability record than Zach Eflin heading into the previous winter. Walker cost them $72 million over four years, far more than anybody had anticipated, but it was clear to the trade community how highly the Phillies regarded having a pitcher who could put up innings. Walker did pitch 172 2/3 innings and end up with 2.5 fWAR in 2023 despite having a mixed season.
The Phillies traded one of their top prospects, Hao-Yu Lee, for Michael Lorenzen before this year’s trade deadline, even though they had five starters in the rotation. This allowed the organization to switch to a six-man rotation and have an extra arm in case an injury occurred. After the no-hitter, he didn’t throw effectively, but he did serve a purpose when Ranger Suรกrez missed time at the conclusion of the season due to a hamstring injury.
The Phillies will be interested in Snell and will investigate him more, but it’s difficult to see them choosing Snell over other possibilities given everything mentioned above and the implications of signing Snell for the luxury tax.
For the 2025 signing period, the Phillies will have to give up a second and fifth-round selection as well as one million dollars in international bonus pool money (about one-fifth of the team’s total pool) because Snell has a qualifying offer tied to him and the Phillies will pay the luxury tax in 2023. The Phillies will receive a draft pick after the fourth round if they sign Snell and let Nola leave, negating the need to give up the team’s fifth-round pick.
There are no accompanying eligible offers for Montgomery or Yamamoto. The Phillies may want to take a break this year given that they have forfeited seven draft picks and $3.5 million in international bonus pool money in order to acquire qualified free agents. It’s a high price to pay. Additionally, Snell is anticipated to make more money in free agency than Nola and Montgomery. A figure of about $250 million was proposed by Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Inflation in the free agency starting pitching market is real, but that much money for a pitcher that doesnโt have a track record of being a workhorse is ridiculous.ย Snell has made 23 career starts and pitched at least seven innings. Roy Halladay pitched seven innings or more.
In the last ten years, the standard for what constitutes an ace has significantly lowered. Teams may be better off having lower expectations for their best starters. Throwing more than 200 innings a year for years at a time has a price. Baseball should not go back to its previous practices on pitcher management, as demonstrated by Halladay’s battles with pain and addiction.
However, a balance that pleases both spectators and athletes can be achieved, as the sport appears to have discovered with the ace pitcher, who pitches over 200 innings in their best seasons and averages about 170 innings. In this day and age, that is the bar that an ace pitcher must meet, and Snell has consistently fallen short of it. However, it app ears that he will be paid.
Perhaps I’ll be gravely mistaken and Snell ends up becoming the next Randy Johnson. What counts is what Dombrowskiโthe executive who formerly dealt Johnsonโbelieves is the proper course of action.